EASING OUT OF THE LOCKDOWN IN INDIA
As we come up on 14th April 2020 which is supposed to be the end of the 21 day period of lockdown announced by PM for India, speculation is rife on whether or not this lockdown will be extended, and if yes, by what duration. By now many perspectives have been given regarding the pros and cons of extension of the lockdown. Arguments against the lockdown in view of the socio-economic impact have been captured by me and many others on numerous occasions already. What is forefront in everyone’s mind is what will transpire post 14th April 2020.
According to me, if you piece together all the bits of news and information floating around, it is self-evident and a no brainer how this should and ought to play out. For a proper perspective we have to rephrase the question. It is not the question whether the lockdown shall end on 14th April or 30th April or some other date. It is the question that in what manner lockdown will be ended.
According to me, following are the steps that should be taken (and are being contemplated to be taken from what I can make out from various sources) as a way forward:
- Post 15th April 2020, each State CM to take decision with respect to their State and specific districts in the State based on the ground level situation rather than a decision being taken by PM for the entire country. This is logical as each State has its unique fact situation and all are not similarly placed in terms of infected cases etc.
- Hotspots in the specific districts to continue under lockdown – we have seen some steps in this direction yesterday from CM of UP and Delhi.
- State borders to remain closed except for transport of goods.
- International borders to remain closed except for cargo movement.
- Gatherings of more than 4 persons continue to be restricted till further notice.
- Movie halls, stadiums, auditoriums and other public places used for large public gathering continue to remain closed.
- All offices and factories to open with SOPs in place for precautions to be taken including social distancing.
- Construction activity to resume, with SOPs in place for social distancing and precautions.
- Daily wagers to be allowed to come back to the various cities to resume their vocation.
- Wearing of masks outside the home to be compulsory for all.
- Public transport to be restarted with social distancing measures in place.
- Schools and Colleges to remain closed but be mandated to implement online classes.
- Malls, shops and restaurants to be allowed to open with extended hours, maximum limit on number of patrons and SOPs for precautions to be taken vis-à-vis health safety.
- Continued testing, tracing and monitoring – or 5Ts as encapsulated by Delhi CM – and sealing off any new hotspots that may emerge.
- Continued build up of capacity in all states to be able to cater to increasing number of patients (as this increase is inevitable – lockdown or not).
- Domestic airlines and railways to be started only subsequently, that also with social distancing SOPs.
The PM needs to address the nation before 14th April 2020. He should focus only on the help proposed to be extended by Central Government for economic relief and medical support. The easing of the lockdown and measures to be implemented, he should defer to the CMs of the States.
Any blanket extension of the lockdown on an as is basis, will not only entail dire economic consequences, it will also entail almost all businesses to STOP paying salaries to their employees post 15th April 2020. I am sure the PM and CMs will not be pleased about this outcome and needs to keep this GROUND REALITY front and centre in their decision matrix while being flooded by recommendations and ‘expert speak’ from all quarters.
© Anshuman Khanna 2020
Published on www.anshumankhanna.in
Well thought strategy befitting the prevailing conditions and consequences .
States are ruled by different political parties with regional aspirations and agendas. Wonder whether their decisions will take national interest into consideration.
Very good article
I appreciate the logical thinking and suggestions enumerated in the article. However , I am a bit scared on suggestion no. 9 where we consider that daily wagers will come back to work. Those who have gone to their villages are unlikely to come back due family pressure to continue with them till the disease is fully eradicated. They will prefer to share whatever little they have rather risking their lives to come to cities which are still fighting with the epidemic . Being the harvest season in North could be another factor for getting some sundry jobs in rural areas.
Even if they come , again you will need buses and trains to run which will endanger the safe distance requirement.
Hence , the opening need to be planned step wise and sector wise starting with most essential to less essential.
Best compliments for the steps suggested.
However most of them appear to be urban- centric.Nothing has been suggested in favour of the poor,particularly farmers who are going to face the oncomiing harvesting season.
Also, most of the suggestions require SOPs.It is not clear whether concrete work has already been done or are yet to be developed.Without clear SOPs some of the suggestions may not be workable.
Excellent suggestions with balanced approach to save lives both from economic disaster and convid19
I appreciate your balanced view.
In democratic set up biggest challenge is how to ensure implementation of SOP’s.
Democratic set up system has limitations and hard ways are not accepted by citizens.
Unless we all contribute to the cause it’s not that simple to control the situation in short time.
In addition to efforts by govt. and social groups it’s now responsibility of all influencers to effectively communicate their group , admirers and followers.
Many points are easy to write on paper difficult to implement.
– interstate borders to be closed except for cargo., how will then daily wage workers and construction site workers come to the cities for their vocation
– public transport and social distancing is oxymoron. Not practically possible
– public places should remain closed and then you say restaurants and malls should open with extended timings. How?
A very good analysis. Question is will the Politicians be so pragmatic and whether we are geared up for such selective enforcement. The second question is What if there is spike after the relaxation. In my opinion all what you say will be implemented after extension of lockdown till 30 th April 2020.
You have been providing very valuable suggestions and ideas. All your ideas are very practical that takes care of economy and public health but how prepared are state governments is a big question Mark?
Second question is there are CMs who look at shoulder of others to own responsibility and play political games even under such critical phase.
Start of public transport with suggested measures like ensuring social distancing and primary checks like thermal temperature scan and passing through disinfection tunnel will lend further support to control virus spread through perceived public transport.
Your views are visionary and in alignment to ground reality.
P.K.Yadav