MY TOP THREE PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

 2010 has come to an end…and 2011 beckons…while I, like anyone else, have a host of predictions, wishes and hopes pinned on 2011 here are my top three predictions which I guess are more palatable for public consumption on account of being relatively less specific to my selfish interests.

So here goes…

1.            Year of Reliance Industries

This year will belong to Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries insofar as outperforming Indian majors, driving sensex valuations and the overall market sentiment is concerned. Recent news flow notwithstanding, Reliance will continue to power ahead with its production from the KG D6 fields, hitting the 60 MMSCMD mark and generating annual free cash flows for itself in excess of a billion dollars just from this asset. The improvement in the GRM cycle and petrochemical prices would also help RIL in registering a superlative financial year in 2011-12. It would lead the pack in performance amongst all its Indian peers and would single handedly propel the indices to new highs.

With the non-compete out of the way, it would be the next logical step for RIL to venture into gas based power generation and city gas distribution in a major way. Apart from being a natural forward integration, it would also lend to the Ambani-esque tendency to accumulate super profits for their company to the benefit of themselves and the minority shareholders as opposed to turning the same over to the Governments or the regulators.

Apart from these initiatives, the company would likely announce major initiatives directed towards the fruitful deployment of the cash chest it would accumulate on the back of its upstream business. The year would see RIL following up on several acquisition initiatives, ranging from the Oberoi Hotel acquisition to an overseas acquisition of an enormous scale.

Only one issue that I remain ambivalent about though, how about RIL acquiring Cairn India???

2.            Peepli Live wins at the Academy Awards

If ever there was a movie with a real chance to bring an Oscar to India, it would have to be Peepli Live. And I do not count Slumdog in this category, as it was not an ‘Indian’ produced movie in the real sense. Peepli on the other hand, apart from being blessed with the Aamir Khan pedigree, has all the ingredients to make it an apt Oscar winning candidate.

It deals with a serious issue (farmer suicides), it is painfully slow yet engaging, and it shows India’s rural and impoverished side (something the goras seem to love…case in point being Danny Boyle’s exploitative work). The wry humour and satirical treatment of the issues would find receptiveness with the Academy’s jury and coupled with the fact that in the face of recent mediocrity churned out by both Hollywood and Bollywood, movies such as Peepli stand out for their being masterpieces in cinematic development, it would surely hit the home run.

Needless to say, my vested interest here would be to see Aamir win an award in the international forum (after having won the National Award), which holds some credibility as opposed to the Indian ‘fixed’ popular awards which are dominated by Mr. SRK!!!

What will make this year an even bigger success for Aamir Khan though would be the release and critical appreciation of Dhobi Ghaat which according to me would be a turning point for the way movies are made in Bollywood much akin to Dil Chahta Hai and 3 idiots.

I would only add my 2 cents for Aamir’s benefit and suggest he ‘re-release’ his movie Raakh this year, as the audiences have matured to finally see and appreciate a gritty movie of its sort, which was way ahead of its time when released in the 1980’s.

3.            Fall of the Titans

This year, and also, this decade is going to continue on the trend of it’s predecessor with more and more biggies buckling down to their knees and belying the perception of their superior standing.

‘Majors’ like Citibank have already been exposed for their shoddy operations and susceptibility to frauds, leaks and systemic failures. Other ‘majors’ who run the risk of fatality include companies which are over leveraged (such as the ADAG Group companies and real estate players) as also companies lacking any substance in their performance. The big four/five consulting firms will also likely see another fatality and so will a few entrenched CEO’s.

Escalating things further, we would likely witness another couple of countries teetering to the brink of insolvency and being rescued by artificial money extended by countries or institutions which are themselves of questionable financial health. Titans like the US Dollar will continue to slowly dwindle to insignificance and the US economy will continue to underperform.

The only ‘fall’ I hope and wish does not happen is that of the delicate dam of peace which exists and holds off the barrage between countries such as N. Korea-S. Korea, India-Pakistan-China, and last but not the least, Israel-and its neighbours.

So those are my thoughts on this year. All in all another grim year interspersed with moments of elation and propelled by hope and undying human optimism in the face of moral degradation.

I will surely read this again on 31st December 2011 to introspect – not on the accuracy of these predictions – but perhaps on the (as yet imperceptible) futility of this post!!!