TOP TAKE AWAYS FROM ELECTIONS 2012

We all know how the state elections 2012 panned out.

Without getting into a rehash of all the results or attempting an analysis of the minutiae details of the same, I thought it would be interesting to highlight the key takeaways that seem to shed light on the changing trends in the political landscape of the country –

1.      DYNASTIES – Dynastic politics are here to stay. Whether it be the Gandhis at the Centre, or the Badals in Punjab or the latest …the Yadavs in UP…so long as we remain true to our human tendency to self propagate, the sons and daughters will continue to be the flag bearers and front runners and will enjoy idolisation at the hands of the masses.

2.      GENERATION X – The electorate is increasingly aware of and receptive to Gen X leaders. Pioneered by the Congress (Rahul, Sachin, Jyotiraditya, Milind and Jiten), most of the other parties have also put their prospects of future front and centre, with Akhilesh Yadav, Sukhbir Badal, Raj and Udhav Thakeray being prime examples. What this does translate to is impending doom for the non-fertile politicos who seem to coincidentally? be housed in parties like BJP and who, upon being asked about their Gen X leaders, are able to come up with mediocrities like Varun Gandhi for a response.

3.      REGIONAL PARTIES – The era of dominance of the nationalistic parties seems to be slowly but surely drawing to a close. Congress and BJP are not only overwhelmed by the regional parties in the State elections but also increasingly need the crutch of their support for carrying on at the Centre. It leads to the inevitable conclusion – the coalition government – with all its fallacies and inefficiencies is here to stay.

4.      PARACHUTE POLITICS – Parachute politics do not work. If you wish to govern a state you need to be part of their masses. Just by parachuting into the state few months prior to the polls, you cannot hope to sway the electorate away from the regional leaders who spend days and months in their midst. Just by pulling off stunts like staying in the houses of the rural voters you cannot change the hard fact that you are an outsider. You need to inculcate leaders from within the state itself if you wish to stand a sliver of a chance against the entrenched regional parties of the state.

5.      ANTI INCUMBENCY SENTIMENT – Eternal optimists that the voters are, they always believe they have something better in store by electing someone new to the chair. Hence the incumbent always starts with a massive disadvantage. Election results much like the present ones mostly indicate the anti incumbency sentiment manifesting itself with the hope of a better tomorrow. In face of the above, victories by the incumbents such as SAD in Punjab are rarer still and even more commendable.

6.      CORRUPTION – It only takes a look at the stock market to realize that corruption is not only present in our governance system but is also widely acknowledged by all and sundry. Why else would you have the stock market applauding ADAG stocks on an SP victory and the media reporting benefits to ADAG since the group is ‘close’ to SP, or for that matter groups ‘close’ to Mayawati Government being beaten down on the bourses and the media alike.

7.      HORSE TRADING – With the proliferation of the regional parties and the independents, the vote bank is being spread thinner and election results are becoming more and more tight. The prospects of absolute majority have become rare (SP’s sweeping victory over UP being an exception). With results like the one in Uttarakhand, each seat is worth crores, literally and figuratively. So the horse trading will continue and every elect will demand his pound of flesh to lend support to the party forming the government. This is our democracy at its finest working as was envisioned by the founding fathers while putting in place the constitution of India.

8.      CHAOS – With every passing year we will see increasing uncertainty and chaos with the elections – in the campaigns, in the polls and even more so in the results – and the most in the media. All in all its going to get to the point where nothing will be taken as a given and it will have all the makings of a fun filled cliff hanger with winner takes all…err…winner shares all (the booty with the usual suspects who lend him support). It will surely be more entertaining than Indian cricket the way that is going.

So sit back and enjoy the ride…